Saturday, May 5, 2012

Analysis: Is a Palestinian revolt against Mahmoud Abbas brewing?


Analysis: Is a Palestinian revolt against Mahmoud Abbas brewing?

As a deadline for elections passes, Palestinian frustration towards a leadership seen as inept, out of touch and repressive is rising to dangerous levels.

Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas
Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas  Photo: AFP
It was meant to be a day of catharsis and rejoicing, marking the fulfilment of a visionary government strategy to end years of debilitating political cleavage and create a formidable platform to challenge Israel's occupation.
But instead of going to the polls as they were promised this Friday, Palestinians are remaining at home, betrayed once again by bickering leaders whose quarrels have contributed to an increasingly dangerous sense of malaise across the West Bank and Gaza.
For many ordinary Palestinians, the failure to hold legislative elections as promised represents the culmination of a deeply disappointing year in which politicians had sharply heightened their expectations only repeatedly to dash them.
Last September, ecstatic crowds gathered in the centre of Ramallah, the West Bank's de-facto capital, to celebrate the submission of a formal Palestinian application for statehood before the United Nations.
The request was seen as a moment of glorious defiance, the belated repudiation of the Middle East peace process that, for Palestinians, had been bankrupted by Israel's persistent refusal to halt Jewish settlement construction on their land.
But an even more important moment had come some months earlier when the two main Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, confounded expectations by announcing that they would end their differences and reconcile.
The two movements had fought a short but brutal civil war in 2007 that had left the Palestinians geographically and politically riven. Gaza fell under the control of the Islamists of Hamas while the West Bank remained in the hands of their secular rivals Fatah, led by Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate president of the Palestinian Authority.
The schism was a scar on the Palestinian consciousness, with many in both territories arguing that a people so divided could never hope to confront Israel or lay the ground for the creation of a viable Palestinian state.
Fatah-Hamas reconciliation, polls showed, was the single most important issue for most Palestinians, outstripping even peace talks with Israel and the many perceived injustices of the occupation.
By presenting the rapprochement between the two factions, which was supposed to culminate in elections on Friday, as an integral part of his statehood bid, Mr Abbas appeared finally to have convinced his people that he had a grand design to fulfil their aspirations.
Instead, both initiatives have floundered. Faced with muted international support and outright hostility from the United States and Israel, Mr Abbas has essentially shelved his UN bid and no movement is likely until after the American elections in November, observers believe.
Political reconciliation has likewise stalled. Neither Hamas nor Fatah can agree how to share power in an interim government or to merge their respective security forces.
With Friday's election deadline passing, Palestinians are growing increasingly disillusioned. An opinion poll published last month indicated that support for Hamas and Fatah has fallen to historic lows, with 50 per cent of respondents saying they would vote for neither party were an election actually to be held.
Their frustration has only been compounded by the Arab Spring, which has left many Palestinians feeling they have been left behind by the democratising tide washing across the region.
Palestinians are keenly aware that while Egypt and others have discovered that real elections are chaotic and often violent affairs, they are being given a genuine choice at the ballot box for the first time.
Not only have Palestinians had that option ripped away from them, they also have a leader who has essentially been in power unconstitutionally for more than three years. Mr Abbas's term officially expired in January, 2009.
Fatah and Hamas have both blamed Israel for their woes but for many Palestinians such protests have a hint of hollowness about them -- and their leaders are aware that popular resentment towards them is reaching potentially dangerous levels.
"The embers of discontent are there and the authorities in the West Bank and Gaza are aware of this, but their reaction has been one of repression," said George Giacaman, a prominent Palestinian political analyst.
Fearful of the precedent set by the Arab Spring, Mr Abbas has been accused of responding to public frustration by becoming increasingly authoritarian.
In the past six weeks, according to the Palestinian human rights network Al Haq, nine bloggers and journalists have been slung into prison on charges of offending public officials, often Mr Abbas himself.
Ismat Abdul-Khaleq, a university lecturer in the West Bank, spent a fortnight in jail last month accused of defaming Mr Abbas by allegedly describing him as a "traitor" on her Facebook page. She has since been released on bail.
Jamal Abu Rihan, a blogger, has been in prison for the past month after he created a Facebook page with the title "The People want an end to Corruption", a slogan that echoed the rallying cry of the Arab Spring: "The People want the downfall of the regime".
In another sign of intolerance towards press freedoms, nine news websites supporting one of Mr Abbas's rivals in Fatah have been blocked in the West Bank on the orders of the Palestinian Authority's attorney general.
The policy has caused disquiet among more progressive politicians in the West Bank. Hanan Ashrawi, the veteran Palestinian leader, took the rare step of making her opposition known to the public.
"Palestine should not promote censorship, whether on the internet or in other forms of communication," she said in a statement.
"The blocking of Palestinian news websites and other measures that prevent access to information and curb freedom of expression are in complete contradiction to the principles enshrined in the Basic Law."
Palestinians may complain that such warnings are not being heeded, but there are doubts that they are ready to take to the streets in the same way as their Egyptian brethren.
Even so, an increasing number of observers are asking how long their patience can last. Apathy and indifference may remain the prevailing mood among the majority, but faced with a government whose legitimacy is being steadily eroded by inaction and division Palestinians are quite possibly closer to erupting against their own leadership than ever before.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/9244982/Analysis-Is-a-Palestinian-revolt-against-Mahmoud-Abbas-brewing.html

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