Monday, November 26, 2012

TRUCE OR FARCE? WHEN BROKERED BY EGYPT -- FARCE


TRUCE OR FARCE? WHEN BROKERED BY EGYPT -- FARCE

By Schmoel Yitzhak

Benjamin Netanyahu is a smart man. 

With that in mind, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the Israeli-Hamas truce to which he agreed. 

But I won't give him that benefit for very long. Maybe a month; two at most. By that time we'll have a very good idea whether the truce is a farce or whether it's a route to peace and quiet from the Gaza side.

Judging by the reaction among the dominant -- at least by decibel count -- Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt the truce should have a slightly longer shelf life than a smoke ring.

Just a day after it had been signed the Boys from the Brotherhood were preaching death to the "Zionist Entity" -- it pains them like a root canal to utter the word "Israel" -- in the streets and to the media.

Israelis are well aware that Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood are as synonymous as one percent milk and two percent milk. The only real difference is the label but they both possess virtually the same Kill Jews ingredients.

That said, I must give Bibi credit. The Prime Minister was not impetuous in agreeing to the truce -- did he feel Hillary Clinton's breath down his back? -- and he won't be impetuous signing off on it either. 

Netanyahu will allow Khaled Meshal, the Hamas terrorist leader, time to assess the damage inflicted by Israel. If Meshal decides that he'd like to try for another "victory" and resume the rocketry it will be incumbent on Bibi to do what he planned to do in the first place; send in the troops. Only a few phone calls from the distant Barack Obama prevented that.

Still, Israelis from South to North remain pessimistic about this truce enjoying any long-term value. It doesn't take any genius to figure that Hamas is controlled long-distance by the Iranian mullahs and we know where they stand on the issue of Israeli survival. 

Add to that the other poisonous ingredient, Egypt's President Mohamed Morsi who currently is being hailed as the resident truce-maker. 

Rest assured that Morsi urged the truce not because he wanted Israel spared still another rocket blitz but rather because Obama threatened to reduce American monetary aid to Egypt. Under the Morsi regime, the Egyptians live under Third World conditions and the Cairo economy would collapse without Uncle Sam's do, re, me.

For the moment at least Morsi is putting his country's economic survival -- Gimme the dough, Obama -- ahead of his less-than-subtle wish to ultimately eradicate Israel and hand it to the Arab mob of his choice; likely Hamas. 

But for Morsi -- being hailed in the New York Times as a pragmatist -- that can wait. In this case it's a matter of cash over conquest; the latter can come later on the Egyptian agenda.

Meanwhile, some pseudo-seers in the media are comparing the current Hamas-Israeli truce with the one Israel negotiated with Hezbollah after the Lebanese War; as if that was some sort of successful negotiation. 

Facts on the ground tell you a different story. Hezbollah not only has re-armed to the teeth but has spent the past year bragging about it. That there has not been a war on Israel's Northern Front is more a result of Hezbollah's Lebanese opponents challenging its power and doing it so effectively that a Lebanese civil war could very well erupt.

As for the Gaza "truce," the following are three reasons why it's doomed to the treaty scrapheap:

1. Morsi travelled to Gaza during the hostilities showing his support for the Hamas terrorist state. How could he possibly be an honest broker when -- if -- serious Israeli-Hamas negotiations take place?

2. There has been absolutely no change in the Hamas'  "Kill Israelis" thinking. Nurturing their delusions, the Arabs actually believe that they won the latest battle so why should they believe that the  truce should last?

3. The "truce" has no built-in mechanism to ensure that it will be enforced. 

But back to my original point: Bibi is a smart fellow. Let's see what happens in the days/weeks ahead. We have to determine whether rocketry is resumed from Gaza and, if it is, how Netanyahu reacts.

It says here -- and I've said so emphatically in the past -- if one rocket is fired by Hamas, it should result in no less than 100 sent back in return; followed by the troops.

That's the best way to keep a "truce" from becoming a farce!


http://guerrillaisrael.blogspot.co.il/2012/11/truce-or-farce-when-brokered-by-egypt.html